Predictive modeling of plague die-offs in prairie dog colonies
Several published studies have already shown that temperature, precipitation and topography can affect the probability of a die-off event. However, a broader synthesis of datasets from across the BTPD range may enable more accurate prediction of when and where die-offs will occur. The APE lab is leading a large collaborative project to create predictive models of BTPD colony die-offs caused by the plague bacterium. We have acquired colony history data from across the BTPD range and are working on using machine learning techniques to create a model of plague outbreaks that can help managers determine how best to target their anti-plague management activities (such as “dusting” for fleas and vaccine administration). This model will also help us better understand the selection pressures that could lead to genetic resistance to plague. ...